Simple threshold rules. Each alert lists the exact data points that triggered it. These are flags, not predictions.
ccc_oas_widening6 Oct 2026US CCC & lower OAS moved +2.50 pp (250 bps) between 2026-07-07 and 2026-10-06. Borrowing costs for the riskiest companies rose 2 percentage points or more in about 3 months. They are usually the first to be cut off.
| Observation | Period | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US CCC & lower OAS | 7 Jul 2026 | 9.64% | FRED / ICE BofA ↗ |
| US CCC & lower OAS | 6 Oct 2026 | 12.14% | FRED / ICE BofA ↗ |
gpu_list_price_cut30 Sept 2025AWS Price List H200 141GB SXM on-demand (us-east-1) moved -25.4% between 2025-03-31 and 2025-09-30. An AWS GPU list price fell 15% or more in about 6 months. Newer chips can cause this, not only weak demand.
| Observation | Period | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWS Price List H200 141GB SXM on-demand (us-east-1) | 31 Mar 2025 | $10.60/hr | AWS Price List ↗ |
| AWS Price List H200 141GB SXM on-demand (us-east-1) | 30 Sept 2025 | $7.91/hr | AWS Price List ↗ |
gpu_list_price_cut30 Jun 2025AWS Price List H100 80GB SXM on-demand (us-east-1) moved -44.0% between 2024-11-30 and 2025-06-30. An AWS GPU list price fell 15% or more in about 6 months. Newer chips can cause this, not only weak demand.
| Observation | Period | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| AWS Price List H100 80GB SXM on-demand (us-east-1) | 30 Nov 2024 | $12.29/hr | AWS Price List ↗ |
| AWS Price List H100 80GB SXM on-demand (us-east-1) | 30 Jun 2025 | $6.88/hr | AWS Price List ↗ |
multi_indicator_deterioration8 Apr 20253 separate rules fired within 60 days: hy_oas_widening, ccc_oas_widening, bbb_oas_widening. Several separate borrowing-cost warnings fired within 60 days.
| Observation | Period | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US High Yield OAS | 7 Jan 2025 | 2.79% | FRED / ICE BofA ↗ |
| US High Yield OAS | 8 Apr 2025 | 4.57% | FRED / ICE BofA ↗ |
| US CCC & lower OAS | 7 Jan 2025 | 7.29% | FRED / ICE BofA ↗ |
| US CCC & lower OAS | 8 Apr 2025 | 11.14% | FRED / ICE BofA ↗ |
| US BBB corporate OAS | 7 Jan 2025 | 1.04% | FRED / ICE BofA ↗ |
| US BBB corporate OAS | 8 Apr 2025 | 1.46% | FRED / ICE BofA ↗ |
bbb_oas_widening8 Apr 2025US BBB corporate OAS moved +0.42 pp (42 bps) between 2025-01-07 and 2025-04-08. Borrowing costs for safer (BBB-rated) companies rose 0.4 percentage points or more in about 3 months. Stress is reaching mainstream borrowers.
| Observation | Period | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US BBB corporate OAS | 7 Jan 2025 | 1.04% | FRED / ICE BofA ↗ |
| US BBB corporate OAS | 8 Apr 2025 | 1.46% | FRED / ICE BofA ↗ |
ccc_oas_widening8 Apr 2025US CCC & lower OAS moved +3.85 pp (385 bps) between 2025-01-07 and 2025-04-08. Borrowing costs for the riskiest companies rose 2 percentage points or more in about 3 months. They are usually the first to be cut off.
| Observation | Period | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US CCC & lower OAS | 7 Jan 2025 | 7.29% | FRED / ICE BofA ↗ |
| US CCC & lower OAS | 8 Apr 2025 | 11.14% | FRED / ICE BofA ↗ |
hy_oas_sharp_widening8 Apr 2025US High Yield OAS moved +1.78 pp (178 bps) between 2025-01-07 and 2025-04-08. Junk-bond borrowing costs jumped 1.5 percentage points or more in about 3 months.
| Observation | Period | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US High Yield OAS | 7 Jan 2025 | 2.79% | FRED / ICE BofA ↗ |
| US High Yield OAS | 8 Apr 2025 | 4.57% | FRED / ICE BofA ↗ |
hy_oas_widening8 Apr 2025US High Yield OAS moved +1.78 pp (178 bps) between 2025-01-07 and 2025-04-08. Junk-bond borrowing costs rose 0.75 percentage points or more in about 3 months.
| Observation | Period | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US High Yield OAS | 7 Jan 2025 | 2.79% | FRED / ICE BofA ↗ |
| US High Yield OAS | 8 Apr 2025 | 4.57% | FRED / ICE BofA ↗ |